(11:45PM – Tuesday, August 11th, 2026)
Severe Weather Threat Wednesday ⚡
Another day… another severe weather threat, this time for Wednesday. Once again, the threat may be *potentially* significant, but the extent of that threat remains conditional as of this forecast. Uncertainty regarding how the day evolves precludes outlining a higher severe weather threat with this forecast cycle.
While a few showers/t’storms (isolated severe) may be ongoing across portions of Northern Illinois Wednesday morning, the main focus initially will be farther west. A complex of severe t’storms ongoing across South Dakota tonight (Tuesday night) is expected to track southeastward across portions of Nebraska and Iowa through early Wednesday morning.
There is some uncertainty regarding the quality and evolution of this complex as it crosses Iowa, including whether it will remain an organized/mature complex or if renewed development will be needed to refresh/maintain the complex. Nonetheless, tonight’s weather guidance (Tuesday night), combined with real-time observational trends, suggests some form of the complex will track east-southeast across Northern and Central Illinois Wednesday morning into the early afternoon, near a diffuse frontal boundary and along an instability gradient. A severe weather threat will accompany this activity, with damaging winds being the primary concern, potentially significant.
On the southern flank of this complex, there is some support among weather guidance for renewed t’storm development across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Wednesday afternoon. Should this scenario come to fruition, upscale growth into another complex would be possible, with activity then traversing portions of Central and especially Southern Illinois into Wednesday evening. A severe weather threat would accompany this activity as well.
Real-time observations will continue to be closely monitored overnight and into early Wednesday morning. An earlier-than-normal forecast update will be issued Wednesday morning as the situation becomes clearer.
#ilwx #severeweather
