(11:00AM – Tuesday, March 4th, 2025) Tuesday morning update on a strong late winter/early spring storm system will affect the state over the next few days. A low-end severe t’storm threat will accompany this storm system today/tonight across portions of the state.
Timing…
•This Afternoon – Tonight, March 4th.
Location…
•Central & Southern Illinois.
Impacts…
•Two rounds of isolated severe t’storm potential will be possible. The first round will be in the form of the northern end of a broken QLCS, affecting Southern and portions of Central Illinois on Tuesday afternoon and evening. The second round will be isolated/scattered t’storm activity that moves from Missouri into Central and Southwestern Illinois on Tuesday evening and night.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across Central and Southern Illinois for the possibility of isolated severe t’storms.
•Damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the threats from activity.
Update…
•With this update, we have slightly expanded level 1/isolated severe t’storm probabilities northward across more of Central Illinois. Weather guidance shows a similar environment as to areas just south, thus, a non-zero severe t’storms threat will be possible.
Discussion…
•As a strong late winter/early spring storm system moves through the region over the next few days, a low-end severe t’storm threat will accompany this storm system on Tuesday across portions of the state. Two rounds of isolated severe t’storm potential will be possible. The first round will be in the form of the northern end of a broken QLCS, affecting Southern and portions of Central Illinois on this afternoon and evening. The second round will be isolated/scattered t’storm activity that moves from Missouri into Central and Southwestern Illinois this evening and tonight. While parameters, such as instability and moisture, will be meager, shear and forcing will be ample. In other words, this is a fairly common early-season high shear/low instability potential. While many times severe t’storm potential with this sort of setup is quite low, but it is enough of a threat to be worthy of a mention, and can be sneaky on occasion.
