(11:15PM – Sunday, November 3rd, 2024) Sunday night update on a storm system moving through the region, which will bring additional rounds of rain and t’storms to the state through early Wednesday. Of note will be a round of activity from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning, which may pose a severe t’storm risk.
Update…
•Little change was needed on the severe t’storm forecast for Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. The going forecast is on track based on the latest weather model guidance.
Timing…
•Monday Afternoon – Tuesday Morning, November 4-5th.
Location…
•Western and Southwestern Illinois.
Impacts…
•A broken complex of rain/t’storm activity from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning could pose a severe t’storm risk.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across Western and Southwestern Illinois from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning for the possibility of isolated severe t’storms. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the threats from activity.
Discussion…
•As a storm system moves through the region, multiple clusters/lines of rain/t’storms will move across the state. Of note will be a complex of activity from Monday into Tuesday, which could pose a severe t’storm risk. While greater instability will preclude a higher severe t’storm threat, ample moisture, wind shear, forcing, and a strong low level jet will all prove sufficient for a lower end severe t’storm threat during this period.
