(12:00PM – Monday, November 4th, 2024) Monday midday update on a storm system moving through the region, which will continue to bring additional rounds of rain and t’storms to the state through early Wednesday. Of note will be a round of activity from this afternoon into early Tuesday morning, which may pose a severe t’storm risk.
Update…
•Little change was needed on the severe t’storm forecast for this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. The going forecast is on track based on the latest weather model guidance.
Timing…
•This Afternoon – Tuesday Morning, November 4-5th.
Location…
•Northern, Central & Southwestern Illinois.
Impacts…
•A broken complex of rain/t’storm activity from this afternoon into early Tuesday morning could pose a severe t’storm risk.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across Northern, Central, and Southwestern Illinois from this afternoon through early Tuesday morning for the possibility of isolated severe t’storms. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the threats from activity.
Discussion…
•As a storm system moves through the region, multiple clusters/lines of rain/t’storms will continue to move across the state. Of note will be a complex of activity from today into Tuesday, which could pose a severe t’storm risk. While greater instability will preclude a higher severe t’storm threat, ample moisture, wind shear, forcing, and a strong low level jet will all prove sufficient for a lower end severe t’storm risk during this period.
