(10:30AM – Tuesday, July 30th, 2024) Tuesday update on a “Ring of Fire” pattern in place, featuring multiple disturbances moving through the region with an enhanced upper level flow in place atop ridging across the Southern Plains and Southern Mississippi Valley. Clusters of rain/t’storms will continue to be likely on a daily/nightly basis across portions of the region and state during this period. Severe t’storms will be likely with some of this activity across specific outlooked areas during this timeframe.
Update…
•With this update on the severe t’storm forecast for today/tonight, we have increased the severe t’storm threat level across portions of the state. This change was made based on real-time data/observations and trends within model guidance.
•With this update on the severe t’storm forecast for Wednesday/Wednesday night, no changes were needed. The going forecast is on track as of this time.
Timing & Location…
•This Morning – Early Wednesday Morning, July 30-31st: Much of Illinois.
•Early Wednesday Morning – Early Thursday Morning, July 31st-August 1st: Much of Illinois.
Impacts…
•A level 1 to 3 severe t’storm risk is in place across much of Illinois from this morning through early Wednesday morning for the likelihood of isolated to scattered severe t’storms. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado will be the main threats from activity. Environmental conditions will be supportive of the possibility of occurrences of damaging winds 75MPH+ and/or corridors of widespread/significant wind damage.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across much of Illinois from early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning for the likelihood of isolated severe t’storms. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado will be the main threats from activity.
Discussion…
•Clusters of rain/t’storms will continue to be likely across the region and state on a daily/nightly basis during this period. Severe t’storms will also continue to be likely with some of this activity across specific outlooked areas during this timeframe.
•For this morning through early Wednesday morning, an initial cluster of rain/t’storms moved across portions of Central and Southern Illinois this morning, bringing severe t’storms to some areas. In the wake of this activity, another cluster of rain/t’storms will likely move across portions of Central and Southern Illinois once again this afternoon, posing a severe t’storm threat as well. It is possible a third cluster of rain/t’storm may be possible very late tonight or early Wednesday morning, which could move into portions of the state. However, there is some question regarding timing and location at this point.
•For early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning, a few clusters of rain/t’storms will be likely across the state. Environmental conditions will be supportive of a severe t’storm threat with some of this activity across Northern Illinois.
•A severe t’storm threat will also exist Thursday through Friday. More specific information regarding the potential for these days is to come in future updates.
