(2:00PM Thur, July 13th 2023) Thursday afternoon update on multiple disturbances that will continue to move through the region through Friday, along the southern flank of a large upper level low in Canada and along the northeastern periphery of a ridge in place across the Desert Southwest/Southern Plains. This pattern will continue to support daily chances for rain/t’storms and severe t’storms across portions of the state during this period.
•We have adjusted severe t’storm probabilities on today/tonight’s forecast, based on real time information and model guidance. Most notable is the introduction of level 1 (Isolated) severe t’storm probabilities across Northern Illinois. While the environment will be marginal/low end, model guidance is supportive of “enough” of a potential for the introduction.
•No changes were needed on Friday/Friday night’s forecast, as the going forecast is on track based on the latest information available.
Timing & Location…
•This Afternoon – Early Friday Morning, July 13-14th: Southern Illinois.
•Friday Morning – Early Saturday Morning, July 14-15th: All of Illinois.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across Northern and Southern Illinois, from this afternoon through early Friday morning. Isolated severe t’storms will be possible, posing a risk of damaging wind, large hail and an isolated tornado.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across all of Illinois, from early Friday morning through early Saturday morning. Isolated severe t’storms will be possible, posing a risk of damaging wind, large hail and an isolated tornado.