(10:30AM – Thursday, February 19th, 2025) Severe t’storm threat through early tonight…
⚠️Update…
•With this update, we have upgraded portions of Eastern/Southeastern Illinois to a level 3 severe t’storm threat. Confidence continues to increase in the likelihood for higher coverage severe t’storm potential within this corridor, along and on either side of I-70. Additionally, we have expanded the level 1 severe t’storm risk across the remainder of Central Illinois, up to near I-80. This change was made to account for a non-zero isolated severe t’storm threat.
⏰Timing…
•Thru Early Tonight, February 19th.
📍Location…
•Central & Southern Illinois.
⚡️💨🧊Hazards…
•A level 1 to 3 severe t’storm threat is in place across Central and Southern Illinois through early tonight, for the threat of isolated to scattered severe t’storms. Damaging winds, hail and a few of tornadoes will be the main threats with activity.
✔️Summary…
•As a storm system moves through the region, impactful weather is expected across the state today.
•While one round of rain/t’storms as already impacted portions of the state overnight/this morning, additional waves of scattered rain and t’storm activity will traverse the state through tonight, as a warm front lifts northward across the state and then a cold front sweeps eastward across the state. Of focus will be Central and Southern Illinois, where two more rounds of activity with severe t’storm potential will be likely through early tonight.
•The next timeframe of focus will be late this morning through late this afternoon, across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, especially int he vicinity of the I-70 and I-64 corridors. A loose complex of rain and t’storm activity developed earlier this morning across Missouri. This activity, which will mature with time as a more favorable environment sets up, will track east-northeastward across the aforementioned corridor through mid to late afternoon. A severe t’storm threat will be likely with some of this activity, perhaps up to scattered coverage. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including a few tornadoes. A long track and/or strong tornado cannot be ruled out. This round of activity will exit into Indiana by/around late afternoon.
•In the wake of the previous round of activity, some atmospheric recovery is expected to occur, allowing for an additional round of isolated to scattered showers and t’storms to develop mid to late afternoon along/ahead of an advancing cold front, across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. This activity will then track northeast/east northeast into the evening, before outrunning the better environment north and exiting into Indiana east. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this activity.
