(11:00PM Sun, July 16th 2023) Sunday night update, regarding multiple disturbances and storm systems that will move through the region through Thursday, along the southern flank of mean troughing in Canada/Great Lakes, and along the northeastern periphery of a ridge in place across the Desert Southwest/Southern Plains. This pattern will continue to support daily chances for rain/t’storms and severe t’storms across portions of the state during this period.
Update…
•With this update we have adjusted severe t’storm threat probabilities, based on real time information and the latest model guidance.
•With this update we have expanded level 1 (Isolated) severe t’storm threat probabilities across more of Central and Southern Illinois on Monday/Monday night’s forecast, based on the latest model guidance.
•With this update we have issued our first forecast for Tuesday/Tuesday night’s severe t’storm potential.
Timing & Location…
•Tonight – Early Monday Morning, July 16-17th: Northeastern, Western & Southern Illinois.
•Early Monday Morning – Early Tuesday Morning, July 17-18th: Central & Southern Illinois.
•Early Tuesday Morning – Early Wednesday Morning, July 17-18th: Southwestern & Southern Illinois.
•Wednesday & Thursday, July 19 & 20th: TBD.
Impacts…
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across Northeastern, Western and Southern Illinois, from tonight through early Monday morning. Isolated severe t’storms will be possible, posing a risk of damaging winds and large hail.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across Central and Southern Illinois, from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe t’storms will be likely, posing a risk of damaging winds and large hail.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across Southwestern and Southern Illinois, from early Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning. Isolated severe t’storms will be likely, posing a risk of damaging winds and large hail.
•A severe t’storm risk will exist on Wednesday and Thursday as well. More specific information regarding potential these days is to come in future updates.
