(11:00AM – Monday, July 15th, 2024) Monday morning update on a “Ring of Fire” pattern in place, with multiple disturbances that will move through the region with an enhanced upper level flow in place atop ridging across the Inter-Mountain West and Central U.S. Clusters of rain/t’storms will continue to be likely on a daily/nightly basis across portions of the region and state during this period. Severe t’storms will continue to be likely with some of this activity across specific outlooked areas during this timeframe.
Update…
•With this update on the severe t’storm forecast for today/tonight, we have upgraded to a level 4 severe t’storm threat across portions of the northern half of Illinois. This change was made based on the latest trends and increasing confidence in the expected outcome for the day. Potential exists for a derecho to bring significant and widespread damaging winds to that portion of the state.
•With this update on the severe t’storm forecast for Tuesday/Tuesday night, we have slightly expanded coverage of level 1 severe t’storm probabilities. This change was made based on the latest trends.
Timing & Location…
•This Morning – Early Tuesday Morning, July 15-16th: Much of Illinois.
•Early Tuesday Morning – Early Wednesday Morning, July 16-17th: Central & Southern Illinois.
Impacts…
•A level 1 to 4 severe t’storm risk is in place across much of Illinois from this morning through early Tuesday morning for the likelihood of isolated to numerous severe t’storms. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats from activity. Environmental conditions will be supportive of the possibility of occurrences of damaging winds 75MPH+ and corridors of widespread/significant wind damage.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across Central and Southern Illinois from early Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning for the likelihood of isolated severe t’storms. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats from activity.
Discussion…
•Clusters of rain/t’storms will continue to be likely across the region and state on a daily/nightly basis during this period. Severe t’storms will be likely with some of this activity across specific outlooked areas during this timeframe.
•For this morning through early Tuesday morning, at least one cluster of rain/t’storms will be likely across portions of the state. Environmental conditions will be supportive of a severe t’storm threat with some of this activity. There is some potential for a derecho across the northern half of the state, which would have the potential to bring significant and widespread damaging winds to the area.
•For early Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning, a few clusters of rain/t’storms will be likely across portions of the southern half of the state. Environmental conditions will be supportive of a severe t’storm threat with some of this activity.
