(12:00AM – Monday, July 15th, 2024) Sunday night update on a “Ring of Fire” pattern in place, with multiple disturbances that will move through the region with an enhanced upper level flow in place atop ridging across the Inter-Mountain West and Central U.S. Clusters of rain/t’storms will continue to be likely on a daily/nightly basis across portions of the region and state during this period. Severe t’storms will continue to be likely with some of this activity across specific outlooked areas during this timeframe.
Update…
•With this update on the severe t’storm forecast tonight, we have adjusted severe t’storm threat level placement based on real-time data and trends.
•With this update on the severe t’storm forecast for Monday/Monday night, we have upgraded to a level 3 severe t’storm threat across portions of Northern Illinois. This change was made based on the latest trends and increasing confidence in the expected outcome for the day.
•With this update, we have issued our first severe t’storm forecast for the Tuesday/Tuesday night period.
Timing & Location…
•Tonight – Early Monday Morning, July 15th: Northern and Central Illinois.
•Early Monday Morning – Early Tuesday Morning, July 15-16th: Northern and Central Illinois.
•Early Tuesday Morning – Early Wednesday Morning, July 16-17th: Southern Illinois.
Impacts…
•A level 1 to 2 severe t’storm risk is in place across portions of Northern and Central Illinois from tonight through early Monday morning for the likelihood of isolated to widely scattered severe t’storms. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats from activity.
•A level 1 to 3 severe t’storm risk is in place across much of Illinois from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning for the likelihood of isolated to scattered severe t’storms. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado will be the main threats from activity. Environmental conditions will be supportive of the possibility of occurrences of damaging winds 75MPH+ and corridors of widespread/significant wind damage.
•A level 1 severe t’storm risk is in place across Southern Illinois from early Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning for the likelihood of isolated severe t’storms. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats from activity.
Discussion…
•Clusters of rain/t’storms will continue to be likely across the region and state on a daily/nightly basis during this period. Severe t’storms will be likely with some of this activity across specific outlooked areas during this timeframe.
•For this tonight through early Monday morning, a large complex of rain/t’storms will continue to traverse portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Environmental conditions will be supportive of a severe t’storm threat with some of this activity.
•For early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning, a few clusters of rain/t’storms will be likely across portions of the state. Environmental conditions will be supportive of a severe t’storm threat with some of this activity.
•For early Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning, a few clusters of rain/t’storms will be likely across portions of the southern half of the state. Environmental conditions will be supportive of a severe t’storm threat with some of this activity.
