Very warm to hot temperatures have been the main story recently across the state, but an increased chance for organized thunderstorms and some severe weather potential will return for much of the state on Wednesday. There are a few different scenarios that could play out for Wednesday…
A broken line of severe thunderstorms is currently (Tue Night) affecting areas well to our west , in the Plain states. This line of storms is expected to weaken and it progresses eastward overnight. This activity will likely leave behind an eastward moving outflow boundary, that will be in the vicinity of the state by morning.
The first and more likely scenario that is possible would be for the aforementioned outflow boundary left over to be a focus for re-newed thunderstorm development across Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois Wednesday morning. Should this occur, this activity would impact portions of the state, with some severe potential possible. Additional thunderstorm development would be likely throughout the day across the state, as well as back west across Iowa and Minnesota. This activity would sweep across the state into the night, with additional some severe potential possible. In this scenario, while a few severe storms would be possible, the overall threat is lower and more conditional.
In the second possible scenario, the aforementioned outflow boundary would fade away. This would allow for better destabilization and maximized severe potential Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Thunderstorms would likely develop across Iowa, Minnesota and down into Illinois during the afternoon. This activity would sweep across much of the state, posing a severe weather threat. In this scenario, the severe weather risk would be greater than scenario one, and more widespread.
While two potential scenarios exist, both would bring the chance for organized thunderstorms to much of the state, including the potential for some severe weather, though at a varying degree. Additionally, given increased moisture levels, heavy rainfall and some flooding will be possible in the hardest hit areas. Stay tuned to additional updates on the situation, with a morning update likely, as what scenario will unfold should be known by then.