Expect to see freezing rain fill in as the evening progresses ahead of the leading shortwave. Current radar shows precipitation north of I-70 and south of Paducah but I expect this activity to fill in as we progress through the night. Models guidance appears to be consistent in paint up to 0.1″ of QPF through the overnight hours and I do expect this to mostly be in the form of freezing rain given the lack of ice crystals to support snow. I think there will be two main focus areas for precipitation – along I-70 and in far southern IL with likely a minimum in precipitation from Mt. Vernon to Marion. This is supported by the last 4 runs of the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh). I want to be clear that even light icing can cause hazardous road conditions so if you have to be out and about this evening, be cautious. Patchy freezing drizzle/mist can still plague the roadways, especially rural, untreated surfaces.
Overnight lows across the region will range from the mid to upper 20s. With precipitation expected overnight and early tomorrow, I don’t expect temperatures to rebound much at all. Sunday should only see highs right around the freezing mark. The best chance at getting above freezing exists in far southern IL, but only marginally. Precipitation should start to wind down from north to south throughout the day on Sunday. I think most places should be clear of precipitation by noon tomorrow but I won’t rule out patchy freezing drizzle or a stray flurry as the cold air filters in. Another shortwave will slide through the far southern part of the state overnight Sunday which may bring another light freezing rain but right now I expect that to be patchy. I’ll have an update on that tomorrow when I can monitor radar trends and high resolution guidance. Overnight lows Sunday night heading into Monday morning look to be rather chilly dipping into the mid-upper teens to low 20s from north to south.
Monday is the start of a nice warming trend we have in store so if you’re tired of the wintry precipitation and cold weather, just make it through Monday. Highs are only going to reach the upper 30s to lower 40s before falling into the mid-upper 20s overnight but Tuesday should rebound rather nicely. I’m currently expect mid-40s from St. Louis along I-70 to places reaching 50 farther south near Carbondale and Paducah. Lows Tuesday night should remain above the freezing mark from 35-40 thanks to some cloud cover that looks to blanket the region. Can’t rule out a stray shower but it won’t be anything to write home about. Wednesday is going to be a gorgeous day. If you don’t have to work, get out and enjoy it. Temperatures should climb into the mid-upper 50s with some spots likely hitting 60! Our next chance of rain will begin to ramp up Wednesday night and on Thursday but don’t worry – it’ll be all liquid. No wintry precipitation is expected with this round. I’ll have an idea of precipitation totals as Thursday gets closer.