Mild Pattern to Continue, but a Potential Change is Coming


Not much to complain about with our weather lately, unless of course you’re a snow lover. The well advertised mild spell is fully underway and should last through the end of the week and into December’s opening days as previously forecast. A quick glance at the CPC chart shows they have our region highlighted in the center of the mild dome during the 6-10 day period.






Although after Tuesday temperatures won’t be quite as mild, they will still remain above normal for this time of year. The slight downturn in temps is courtesy of a weak cold front moving through Tuesday that will bring clouds and a chance for only very light rain in the late morning or early afternoon, however most locations should be dry a majority of the day.

Skies quickly clear Wednesday before another weak system brings a similar chance for light rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Neither of these systems look to be of any significance. Mild air will rebuild and a pretty nice weekend looks to be in store with more mild above normal temps.

Here is a look at what we may see for Highs on Saturday, with similar readings Sunday.

As we move into December’s first week, we are seeing some early hints from guidance that a change could be coming. Sometime around the 5th a storm system should develop and move through the upper midwest dragging a cold front with it. Right now this system doesn’t look to bring us any snow as Illinois will find itself in the “warm sector” but what it might do is drag a much stronger cold front with it that will allow much colder air to come in behind it.




Models agree pretty well on the overall evolution of this patter, suggesting a change is in fact coming, but we still see some day to day differences. Currently we are eyeing the December 5-7th timeframe.  One plot here shows the temperature anomaly forecast for this timeframe showing below average temperatures for not only Illinois but a good section of the country.

We will stay on top of the trends and monitor just how cold it may get, in addition to if any wintry precip will be possible as well.

Bottom line: Enjoy the mild weather for the next week!

-Adam

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About Adam Lucio

Adam has been aggressively chasing storms for over 10 years. He has documented over 120 tornadoes and has been on some of the more notorious outbreaks in recent memory. His passion is fueled by a fascination with the raw power of storms. As a lifetime resident of Illinois, he takes great interest in the local climatology.