Good afternoon everyone, Adam and I are currently heading west down I 80 to put ourselves in position to intercept and report on the severe weather threat expect to ramp up by mid to later afternoon. Supercells capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely to form across the Tri-State area of MO/IL/IA by 2-4 P.M. There is a much higher risk for tornadoes across Southern Illlinois and points south. If you know anyone living in and around the Memphis area, there is a Particularly Dangerous Situation tornado watch in effect through the evening. Definitely a serious situation down there.
As for up here, a deepening area of low pressure is located across the Iowa/Missouri border region. This low will continue to move east-northeast into far northwest Illinois by evening. Ahead of it, strong southerly winds are advecting very warm, moist air into the region. Temperatures are in the low 60’s! Dew points are not far behind. A pronounced dry slot is rotating around the low and will over spread the aforementioned areas and set the stage for thunderstorm development. Instability should begin to build and if thunderstorms are able to form, the environment is very favorable for Supercells with all severe threats possible. A look below at the satellite and radar overlay will illustrate what we mean. The red circled area is the location of cumulus development should continue to spread northeast into Western Illinois this afternoon.
Main risks will be damaging winds, but a few tornadoes are possible as well. Stay alert to watches and warnings as these storms will be very fast moving and some after dark. Don’t let the time of year fool you, severe weather is a very real threat!