Above Average Temps Trend Emerging on Computer Models


As we begin to close out November and move into December we start thinking about the holidays….and winter weather. One of the more frequently asked questions we get is “when is it going to snow?” And we’re not talking about the occasional dustings that we’ve already seen. You know, the stuff that whitens the grass, messes up traffic and then is gone the next day. Some of us want SNOW. Actually snow, to plow, to throw at each other, to build stuff in.

Unfortunately, the news for those who want it isn’t too good atm. Models have been trending towards a pattern that will feature more of an above normal temperature trend. Both our major global models are indicating this in addition to several ocean teleconnections we look at.




The chart below, showing the mean heights at 500mb indicate a ridging pattern that would support above normal temps in November’s final 10 days.

This may lead to some rather mild days, especially next week as shown here.

The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) also issues this trend in their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. The later, as shown below would carry us into early December. We’re not alone though, as much of the country is expected to feel similar conditions.

As far as precipitation goes, this week looks mostly dry aside from a weak disturbance that will approach around Friday. Next week may see more precipitation return to the area.

It is important to note that (and this is the sliver of good news for cold weather lovers) that when talking about TRENDS, it does not mean it will ONLY be above normal. We will still see the occasional cold punch, as indicated by temperatures diving briefly late tomorrow (Tuesday) and especially Wednesday before rebounding in time for Thanksgiving.




But for now, it appears winter and snow have no immediate plans to invade our area. We may experience a tease here and there, but it appears we will have to wait for the real stuff. In fact, if we may end up dealing with this type of pattern through the end of the year.

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– Adam


About Adam Lucio

Adam has been aggressively chasing storms for over 10 years. He has documented over 120 tornadoes and has been on some of the more notorious outbreaks in recent memory. His passion is fueled by a fascination with the raw power of storms. As a lifetime resident of Illinois, he takes great interest in the local climatology.